Ottawa and the steel industry are wrestling over how tough Canada should be on foreign steel. The flashpoint is a high-profile push from Canadian steel magnate Barry Zekelman. The Carney government has taken some steps but is not matching the drastic cuts that industry leaders want. That might sound like far-off policy talk. It is not. In Windsor-Essex, steel and trade rules show up directly in industrial leasing, in development budgets and in multifamily performance.

The Short Version

• The industry wants sharper limits on foreign steel.
• Ottawa is moving carefully to avoid broader economic ripple effects.
• Either path moves through our local market through jobs, costs and timelines.
• Investors should build two live scenarios into their underwriting now.

Why This Matters Here

Windsor-Essex is a cross-border manufacturing region. Auto, parts, logistics and construction all sit on supply chains that are sensitive to tariffs, quotas and “Buy Canadian” or “Buy American” procurement rules. Steel is not a niche input. It is in buildings, racking, bridges, transit, auto and equipment. When rules shift, costs, schedules and location decisions follow.

Industrial: Demand vs. Frictions

Upside scenario. If Canada tightens foreign steel and the United States keeps import barriers high, some production can tilt back toward North America. For our region that can mean healthier industrial absorption, a steadier pipeline of small and mid-bay users and a better backdrop for renewals. Expect firmer tenant demand for 10,000 to 60,000 square foot spaces with decent power, loading and outdoor storage.

Headwinds. Protection raises costs for steel users if supply is tight. Some tenants may pause expansions or push for more landlord contributions to offset capex. Lead times on certain components can extend. Deals still get done, but they take more work.

How to position. Landlords should focus on functional space readiness. Clean code compliance, power clarity, and yard usability win. Offer structured improvement allowances and staged rent to help tenants absorb fit-up. Investors should assume slightly longer downtime and maintain a contingency for equipment-related delays in pro formas.

Development and Construction: Cost Control is King

Steel costs are only one slice of a build, but they influence key line items and schedules. Tighter import quotas or new tariffs can lift pricing and strain lead times even if demand is steady. This matters for commercial shells, distribution, mid-rise modular and larger capital projects.

What to Do Now

• Lock pricing windows early and include escalation language that actually works in the real world.
• Carry a real contingency for structure, connectors and specialty steel elements.
• Bid alternates that allow substitution between domestic mills and approved alternates without redesign.
• Sequence procurement earlier so steel packages do not become the schedule’s long pole.

If you are evaluating land or a build-to-suit, run a sensitivity grid that moves steel-related line items up 5 to 15 percent and pushes schedules 4 to 8 weeks. Check where your return breaks. If the deal only works at the rosiest case, it is not a deal. Adjust or walk.

Multifamily: Jobs Drive Occupancy

Rental fundamentals in this region follow employment. If policy nudges more manufacturing into Ontario, that supports occupancy and stabilizes rent growth even with broader affordability pressure. If trade frictions escalate and cross-border throughput softens, you will feel that in leasing velocity and renewal spreads.

Practical Approach

• Tie your rent growth to employment indicators and household formation, not national headlines.
• Underwrite slightly higher vacancy and incentives if you believe policy risk is rising.
• For value-add, focus on unit scopes that improve durability and operating cost, not just aesthetics.

What to Watch in the Next 90 to 180 Days

• Ottawa’s next policy step. Does the federal stance tighten further or hold steady.
• U.S. posture. Any shift in U.S. tariff levels or exemptions can move our inputs and export routes.
• Procurement language. Provincial or federal “Buy Canadian” provisions on large projects can channel local demand to domestic mills.
• Local order books. Backlog and hiring at regional fabricators, erectors and parts suppliers are your leading indicators.
• Price prints and lead times. Watch monthly updates from suppliers, not just headlines.

How we are Positioning Clients

• Industrial owners. We are preparing spaces to be “plug and play” and negotiating improvement packages that reduce the cash shock for tenants. We are also marketing functional specs clearly to shorten decision cycles.
• Developers. We build in escalation buffers on structural packages and push to lock scopes early. Contracts address substitution and realistic delivery windows.
• Multifamily investors. We set rent and vacancy assumptions off local employment data and keep a close eye on incentive trends. The underwriting adds slack for softer months without breaking the thesis.

Bottom Line

This is not about picking a political side. It is about recognizing that steel and trade rules are moving and that our market sits at the point where policy meets payroll. The winners will be the owners and investors who price uncertainty correctly, buy functional assets at the right basis and keep scopes flexible.

If you want a quick scenario check on an active deal, send the address, your current underwriting and your target outcome. We will stress test costs, timing and tenant demand and tell you, plainly, if the thesis holds.

If you found this helpful, share it with a colleague who invests in Windsor-Essex. It helps more local owners make better decisions.